As Greece’s LNG ambitions take off, operators and investors must take key steps to mitigate risks and ensure project resilience.
Greece is rapidly establishing itself as Southeast Europe’s primary gateway for liquefied natural gas (LNG), anchored by Revithoussa LNG Terminal near Athens and the Alexandroupolis floating Storage and regasification unit (FSRU) in northern Greece, which together handle over 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG annually. Central to Greece’s strategy is the Vertical Gas Corridor, a pipeline network linking these terminals northward through Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and into Ukraine, with extensions to Hungary and Slovakia. Scheduled for completion by the end of 2027, the corridor aims to replace up to 14 bcm of Russian pipeline gas in the region. While the strategic outlook is promising, operators and investors face three main risk categories—political, credit and performance, and supply chain—each with relevant insurance market solutions.
Political risk: The EU’s ban on Russian gas imports by 2028 supports demand growth, but reliance on US LNG exposes Greece to shifts in transatlantic policies. US LNG contracts are typically free-on-board (FOB), allowing suppliers to redirect cargoes to higher bidders, creating supply uncertainty. The US government actively supports the Vertical Gas Corridor, with institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) interested in financing a second terminal in Alexandroupolis, Thrace FSRU, estimated at €600 million. However, changes in US foreign energy policy could impact financing and supply.
Political risk insurance (PRI) from multilateral agencies such as MIGA, OPIC/DFC, and private markets such as Lloyd’s can cover losses from expropriation, license revocation, currency inconvertibility, and contract frustration. For assets spanning multiple countries, a multi-jurisdictional PRI wrap coordinated through a lead insurer and export credit agencies is advisable.
By Aris Samaras, Head of Sales, Marsh Risk Greece
Credit and performance risk: Longterm offtake agreements are critical for financing infrastructure, but Southeast Europe’s fragmented market, with smaller buyers of limited creditworthiness, makes securing bankable contracts challenging. Recent progress includes a 20-year sales and purchase agreement between Atlantic-SEE LNG Trade and Venture Global for 0.5 million tonnes per annum starting in 2030 and a memorandum of understanding between Metlen and Shell for up to 1 bcm per year. Still, the €600 million cost of the second FSRU requires European financial instruments or state support, as major lenders such as the EBRD have paused natural gas financing under climate commitments.
Trade credit insurance (TCI) and surety bonds mitigate buyer default and contract non-performance risks. TCI can cover 85–95% of receivables from lower-rated buyers. Non-payment insurance (NPI), a lender-facing credit wrap, can substitute sovereign guarantees, making projects bankable even without EBRD support. Performance bonds from contractors provide additional protection against construction delays and technical failures.
Supply chain risk: Physical bottlenecks remain a concern. The Bulgaria–Romania interconnection has occasionally exceeded capacity, and approximately €1 billion in compressor and pipeline upgrades is needed along the corridor. DESFA’s new Komotini Compression Station, inaugurated in November 2025, doubles Greece’s export capacity to Bulgaria, but full corridor functionality depends on coordinated investments by multiple national operators. High transmission tariffs also challenge US LNG competitiveness compared to alternative routes.
Business interruption (BI) and contingent business interruption (CBI) insurance cover revenue losses from physical damage to owned assets and disruptions at third-party facilities respectively. Cargo and marine insurance protect LNG in transit, while FSRU hull and machinery (H&M) policies cover the vessel. A difference in conditions (DIC) layer can bridge coverage gaps across jurisdictions.
Greece’s LNG ambitions are strategically sound and gaining momentum, but success depends on managing political, credit, and supply chain risks simultaneously. Mature insurance and surety market solutions exist for each risk category. Early engagement with specialized energy and power insurance brokers is essential to effectively integrate these protections into project structures.
